The world is significantly off-course for its climate goals, with a new report from BP projecting a notable surge in oil and gas consumption through 2050. The energy giant’s annual outlook is a blunt assessment, suggesting the global net-zero target for the mid-century is unlikely to be met due to a severe slowdown in the clean energy transition.
BP’s revised numbers are stark: the long-term forecast for oil use in 2050 is now 83 million barrels per day (b/d), an 8% increase from its previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand is also projected to hold strong, rising marginally to 4,806 billion cubic meters a year in 2050. Furthermore, the company now expects oil demand to peak in 2030 at 103 million b/d, a delay of five years, indicating a prolonged period of high reliance on crude.
Geopolitical factors are the primary drivers of this continued fossil fuel dependency. BP highlights that conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, coupled with increasing trade tariffs, have amplified the focus on national energy security. This global shift towards self-sufficiency may spur the creation of ‘electrostates’ focused on domestic, low-carbon power, but it also strongly risks increasing preference for domestically produced fossil fuels over imported alternatives, slowing the global shift away from hydrocarbons.
The climate consequences are severe and immediate. BP’s modeling indicates that the current energy trajectory will lead the world to breach the cumulative 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The report cautions that this delay significantly increases the economic and social costs required for future stabilization efforts. To stay on track for net-zero 2050, oil demand must drastically fall to approximately 35 million b/d by that date.
Despite rapid growth in wind and solar power—expected to meet over 80% of the increase in electricity demand by 2035—oil will maintain its market dominance. Oil is forecast to remain the single largest source of primary global energy supply, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables, while rising from 10% to 15% of the primary energy mix by 2035, are not projected to surpass oil until the late 2040s, illustrating the decade-long inertia in the energy system.