Financial markets jolted as Iran issued a stark economic threat following the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader. The IRGC warned that if attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure continued, oil could surpass $200 per barrel. The statement, coming amid active airstrikes on Iranian oil sites by Israel and ongoing attacks on Gulf states by Iranian forces, sent crude prices sharply higher. The United States moved to reassure markets by pledging not to target Iran’s energy facilities.
Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, was confirmed as Iran’s supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts on Sunday following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a US-Israeli strike on Tehran on February 28. The cleric and son of the late leader has no formal government experience but is deeply embedded in the regime’s informal power structures, with close ties to the IRGC and conservative clerical circles.
At least five energy sites in and around Tehran were struck by Israeli forces, blanketing the capital in black smoke. The Israeli military confirmed the operations as part of a broader campaign against Iranian infrastructure. Iranian strikes targeted Gulf neighbors, with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE all reporting attacks. A residential strike in Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia, killed two people.
The economic consequences are being felt globally. Iran is a major oil-producing nation, and disruptions to its facilities — or to those of Gulf neighbors — could ripple through energy markets worldwide. Several major economies have already begun contingency planning. The US announcement that it would not target Iranian energy infrastructure was seen as an effort to prevent a price spiral, though Iran’s own threats remain unresolved.
The appointment of a new, untested supreme leader during an active military conflict and economic crisis is a high-stakes gamble for the Islamic Republic. If Mojtaba Khamenei can consolidate power and stabilize the situation, the regime may survive this chapter. If he cannot, the combination of military pressure and economic collapse could accelerate Iran’s internal unraveling. The weeks ahead will be decisive.