Three weeks after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, US oil prices remain in turmoil, with analysts bracing for another volatile session on Monday. Petroleum expert Patrick De Haan has forecast average pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, with $4 gasoline still a real possibility. The drawn-out conflict has reshaped the American energy landscape in ways that consumers are feeling directly at every gas station.
When hostilities began on February 28, the national gasoline average was below $3 per gallon. Since then, a relentless series of supply disruptions has pushed that figure up 23% to $3.70, leaving millions of American households paying considerably more for transportation. The rate of increase has been among the steepest recorded outside of a declared national energy emergency.
US forces struck Kharg Island on Friday, a facility that plays a central role in Iran’s oil export infrastructure, deepening concerns about global supply. Iran has compounded the damage by blocking access to the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off around a fifth of the world’s daily oil flow. Brent crude traded between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude settled near $94 after briefly surpassing $100 the day before.
California has become the focal point of domestic consumer pain, with average gasoline prices exceeding $5 and some Los Angeles stations charging above $8 per gallon. Commercial transport sectors face rising diesel costs, potentially reaching $5.15 per gallon. Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods, along with leadership from Chevron and ConocoPhillips, has briefed White House officials on the serious risks of prolonged supply disruption and market speculation.
US stocks opened positively Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining around 1% amid a temporary retreat in oil prices. Yet analysts caution that this recovery could prove short-lived given the ongoing military situation. Oil company stocks have reached record highs since the conflict began, highlighting the financial gap between energy producers thriving on higher prices and consumers struggling with them.